Russian state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is making the assumption that no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 in its internal planning for 2025, said Reuters, with reference to sources familiar with the plans.
Kyiv has said it wants to end the transit deal, which will bring an end to more than half a century of gas flows from Siberia to the markets of central Europe that began during Soviet times and has been a steady source of Russian budget revenues.
While Ukraine has said it would not consider extending the transit deal, which generates up to $1 billion per year in transit fees for Kyiv, Moscow has signaled it was open for talks and continuation of the flows via the route.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow was ready to continue pumping gas through Ukraine.
Russia, which before the Ukraine war was Europe’s number one natural gas supplier, has lost almost all of its European customers as the European Union tries to wean itself off Russian energy and after the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany was blown up in 2022.
Reuters writes that, according to the person familiar with Gazprom’s plans, which are yet to be approved by the top management, Russia’s base-case scenario is that there will be no gas transit via Ukraine next year. That person spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.
The source said Russian gas exports to “far abroad” – Gazprom’s term for Europe and Turkey, excluding ex-Soviet countries – are expected to fall by a fifth in 2025 to just below 39 billion cubic meters from more than 49 bcm expected this year due to the end of the Ukrainian route.
Moldova’s Energy Minister Victor Parlicov met with Gazprom director Alexei Miller in St. Petersburg on Monday. According to the Ministry, the sides discussed natural gas deliveries to the Republic of Moldova (in the Transnistrian region) based on the contract that will exist after January 1, especially if transit through Ukraine is interrupted.
