The Republic of Moldova is affected by an “educated, continuous and accelerated” exodus. Economist Veaceslav Ionita points out that 21 years later, only half of the 38,000 children born in 2004 remain in the country, reports IPN.
“It’s not just a cold statistic – it’s a painful X-ray of our collective failure to give a child born here enough reasons to stay”, Ionita stressed.
The economist, who has tracked the entire trajectory of children born 21 years ago – from kindergarten through kindergarten, school, high school, college and then into their early working years, finds that “at every stage, the 2004 generation has melted demographically”. The phenomenon is not natural but deeply structural, says the expert.
On the day they stepped on the school threshold, 15% of the 38 thousand children had already left the country. By the time they reach secondary school age in 2020, one in three children born in Moldova in 2004 will be abroad. By 2023, only 60% of the 2004 generation would remain in the country. Veaceslav Ionita estimates that one in two young people leave the country by the age of 22. This means that 17.8 thousand of the 38 thousand children born in 2004 will remain in Moldova when they graduate from university in 2026.
The expert also points out the fiscal losses for the state, in addition to the loss of human capital: each young person who leaves means 25-30 years of lost tax contributions. With an average annual contribution of €4,000, Moldova loses between €100,000 and €120,000 for every young person who chooses to build their future in another country.
The phenomenon has a negative impact on the labor market, generating imbalances due to the lack of skilled labor. The sectors most affected by the structural crisis are education and IT.
As part of the effort to persuade young people to choose Moldova as a place to live, Veaceslav Ionita suggests offering conditional scholarships, tax breaks for young people returning from abroad and housing loans. Meritocracy and digitization are essential, says the expert. Universities must offer skills that can be put to good use at home. “Moldova must not just ask them to stay, but offer them a predictable, dignified and prosperous future”, he added.
